China outbound travel is back and increasingly retail-ready, but CTD’s 2026 forecast shows the real prize lies in corridor strategy, not trip numbers. China Trading Desk (CTD) has released its latest China outbound travel outlook, built on newly released 2025 official travel spend data and CTD’s destination-level travel retail modeling. According to CTD, Chinese residents generated an estimated US$254 billion in outbound travel spend in 2025 across approximately 167.5 million

China Trading Desk (CTD) has projected a US$280 billion outbound travel market for 2026, including a US$23 billion opportunity for global travel retail (GTR), as shopping behaviour rebounds unevenly across key corridors.

China Trading Desk (CTD) has released its latest China outbound travel outlook, based on newly published 2025 official travel spend data and its own destination-level travel retail modelling. CTD estimates that Chinese residents generated US$254bn in outbound travel spend in 2025 across around 167.5 million trips, based on a National Infrastructure Assessment (NIA) crossings-to-trips framework.

The consultancy projects a US$280bn China outbound travel rebound in 2026, with retail-ready travellers and corridor concentration set to drive a US$23bn airport and duty free spend opportunity.

February shows a steadier China market, but tougher conversion: shoppers still spend, yet they compare more, decide faster, and let trust make the final call. From “爱我老己” self-love gifting and GenAI-led storytelling (with stricter governance) to rising AEO urgency and a retail + beauty reset, growth is moving to brands that make value instantly clear and fulfilment reliably smooth.

CTD projects up to 175M China outbound trips and US$280B spend in 2026. See where the wallet goes, corridor winners, and what DMOs, hotels, airports and brands should do next.

China’s travel industry is expecting a sharp increase in visitors to Australia during this month’s extended Lunar New Year holiday, as millions of tourists fan out across the world for a nine-day break. Industry insiders said the lure of wine, seafood, nature and flexible small-group itineraries was driving interest in the island country.

Brands can expect an influx of Chinese travellers to Bangkok, Seoul and Kuala Lumpur during the Spring Festival travel surge, as well as heavier traffic at gateway airports serving domestic holiday destinations in Hainan, Hebei and Shaanxi.

This week, China’s major platforms are amplifying a viral Lunar New Year blessing phrase, shifting reunion-dinner rituals, and frontline-focused Spring Festival storytelling. Attention also remains high on US tariff legality headlines, intangible cultural heritage content, and US–Iran negotiation updates, with additional geopolitics signals around Iran’s heightened readiness. Meanwhile, Xiaohongshu trends centre on winter chasing-light photography and family-travel planning n