China's outbound tourism industry quickly recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, but the era of duty-free shopping sprees seems to be over.

China’s outbound travel sector has bounced back from the pandemic, but the era of duty-free shopping sprees appears to be over.

China’s vast outbound travel market is set for further growth in 2026, boosted by the spread of visa-free policies for Chinese nationals and a stronger yuan. But visits to Japan could plummet by nearly 50 per cent amid a political dispute between Beijing and Tokyo, according to analysts and industry insiders.

Q4 2025 marks a shift from “rebound” to routine in China outbound travel—yet travellers still commit late, so competitive advantage moves upstream. Social content is now a conversion lever (65% say promos on Xiaohongshu/Douyin make them more likely to shop), while price comparison is near-universal (98%). Trust still closes the deal (75% value staff assistance), making “shortlist → checkout” the new battleground.

China Trading Desk (CTD) has released findings from its Q4 2025 China Outbound Travel Survey, showing that 64.4% of Chinese outbound travellers are likely or very likely to shop at the airport. While the report confirms airport retail as mainstream behaviour, it also identifies a large, commercially decisive swing segment.

Social platforms play a significant role in shaping airport shopping intent. Airport shopping has become a mainstream part of the outbound travel journey for Chinese consumers, but converting interest into actual spend is increasingly an execution challenge rather than an awareness one, according to new research from China Trading Desk (CTD).

Japan drops from #2 to #7 for Chinese travellers as warnings and cancelled flights bite. Meanwhile, Asia leads and booking windows get shorter.

Strict flight rules and economic headwinds are forcing scrutiny-wary tycoons to rebase aircraft in places such as Singapore or downgrade to commercial cabins

“The weaker won has made South Korea a better-value destination for Chinese travellers at the same time Japan has become politically ‘expensive’,” said Subramania Bhatt, CEO of the travel marketing and technology firm China Trading Desk.