China Trading Desk projects US$280bn in China outbound spend for 2026

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By Wendy Morley

Published February 23, 2026

China outbound travel is back and increasingly retail-ready, but CTD’s 2026 forecast shows the real prize lies in corridor strategy, not trip numbers. China Trading Desk (CTD) has released its latest China outbound travel outlook, built on newly released 2025 official travel spend data and CTD’s destination-level travel retail modeling.

According to CTD, Chinese residents generated an estimated US$254 billion in outbound travel spend in 2025 across approximately 167.5 million outbound trips, calculated using a National Infrastructure Assessment crossings-to-trips framework. From this base, CTD’s 2026 scenario forecasts 175 million outbound trips, total outbound travel spend of US$280billion, global travel retail shopping worth US$23 billion across airport and duty free or travel retail channels and US$56 billion in non-travel-retail shopping.In CTD’s Q4 China outbound survey, nearly two-thirds of respondents, or 64.45%, said they were likely or very likely to shop at airport travel retail.

For brands and airport retailers, CTD’s message is that China outbound travel has not only returned but is increasingly “retail-ready,” with corridor mix playing a decisive role.

Shopping remains one of the most discretionary components of travel spend. For global travel retail, the critical issue is not just how much travelers spend, but where that spend occurs, whether in airport travel retail, downtown locations or in market retail.

CTD’sQ4 China outbound travel survey highlights that travelers who shop downtown and also at the airport are the easiest segment to convert in travel retail; that interest in beauty and fragrance provides the strongest purchase signal; and that the biggest headwind comes from travelers who say they rarely shop when they travel. Frequent travelers are significantly more retail-ready, with around 72% saying they are likely or very likely to shop airport travel retail compared with roughly 51% among first-time travelers.

Based on CTD’s modeled Shopping: Travel Retail spend for FY2026E, the top five destinations by China outbound travel retail value are Japan at US$2.09 billion, Hong Kong at US$1.33 billion, Macao at US$1.24 billion, South Korea at US$1.13billion and France at US$0.56 billion.

Northeast Asia leads in value, while Hong Kong and Macao dominate on volume. CTD notes that travel retail demand is concentrated in a small number of high-intensity corridors, with Northeast Asia and Greater Bay Area flows accounting for the bulk of spend and selected long-haul destinations contributing meaningful value.

“Trade press headlines often focus on ‘trips are back.’ The bigger story for brands is that retail behavior is back – and it’s uneven by corridor. Our 2026 outlook is designed to be demographic-ready, showing where the travel retail value pools sit, which destinations drive volume, and where conversion strategies should differ,” said Subramania Bhatt, Founder and CEO of China Trading Desk.

Japan emerges as the leading destination by travel retail value in CTD’s 2026 upper-bound scenario at US$2.09 billion, supported by solid travel volume of around 4.6 million arrivals, high shopping intensity and a strong propensity for duty free and airport retail conversion. CTD describes Japan as a market where premiumization and conversion are most evident, making it well suited to hero assortments, exclusives, gifting sets and pre-trip reserve-and-collect activation.

Hong Kong ranks first by traveler volume with approximately 39 million arrivals, followed closely by Macao at around 30 million. Despite lower spend per visitor than long-haul destinations, both markets deliver substantial travel retail totals – US$1.33 billion for Hong Kong and US$1.24 billion for Macao – due to the scale of cross-border flows. CTD characterizes Hong Kong and Macao as volume-driven markets best aligned with always-on campaigns, price ladders, replenishment-friendly categories and fast-turn promotions.

South Korea places within the top five for travel retail value at US$1.13 billion on approximately 6.5 million arrivals, positioning it as one of Asia’s most important high-conversion corridors for travel retail. CTD highlights Korea as a key market for beauty, fragrance and giftable formats, where airport execution and promotional mechanics can materially shift share.

France enters the top five despite more modest traveler volume of about 2.2 million arrivals. CTD attributes this to the higher basket sizes typically associated with long-haul trips and the stronger role of airport retail at departure and return. For Europe, CTD emphasizes that airport-led strategies and strong travel retail storytelling are more critical than assumptions around broad downtown distribution.

CTD advises marketers to move away from a single China strategy and instead plan corridor-first, noting that Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Macao each require distinct approaches to pricing, assortment and activation. The company recommends a two-track global travel retail playbook, with volume corridors such as Hong Kong and Macao focused on replenishment, frequency and promotional discipline, and value corridors including Japan, South Korea and selective long-haul markets centered on premium sets, exclusives and pre-trip activation. CTD also stresses that the most effective programs begin upstream, moving from destination inspiration to itinerary planning, shopping intent and finally airport conversion.

“Our model reconciles to SAFE’s newly released macro benchmark, then translates it into a corridor-by-corridor view that GTR teams can plan against – including travel retail vs non-travel retail shopping splits and conversion signals,” Bhatt added.

The outlook draws on data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange Balance of Payments travel debit figures for FY2025, CTD’s China Outbound Travel Arrivals Spend Model and the CTD China Outbound Q4 Travel Sentiment Survey.