China Trading Desk forecasts outbound market revival in 2026, with US$23 billion GTR opportunity

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By Mark Lane

Published February 24 2026

CHINA. China Trading Desk (CTD) has projected a US$280 billion outbound travel market for 2026, including a US$23 billion opportunity for global travel retail (GTR), as shopping behaviour rebounds unevenly across key corridors.

The outlook is anchored to newly issued 2025 official travel spend data* and CTD’s destination-level travel retail modelling.

CTD estimates that Chinese residents generated US$254 billion in outbound travel spend in 2025 across approximately 167.5 million outbound trips, based on a National Infrastructure Assessment crossings-to-trips framework.

Building on that base, the company’s 2026 scenario forecasts 175 million outbound trips and US$280 billion in total outbound spend. Of that, US$23 billion is expected to flow through airport and duty-free/travel retail channels, with a further US$56 billion in non-travel retail shopping.

Importantly for airport stakeholders and brands, nearly two-thirds (64.45%) of respondents in CTD’s Q4 China outbound survey said they are likely or very likely to shop in airport retail.

Shopping remains one of the largest discretionary components of travel expenditure, CTD noted. For GTR players, it said the pivotal issue is not simply overall shopping spend, but channel mix – whether purchases occur in airport travel retail, downtown duty-free or domestic retail in-market.

That split will determine which operators and locations capture the recovery, CTD contended.

CTD’s Q4 survey indicates that travellers who shop downtown and at the airport represent the most convertible segment for travel retail. Beauty and fragrance register as the strongest purchase signals, while the principal headwind comes from travellers who report that they rarely shop when travelling.

According to CTD’s research, some 72% of frequent travellers say they are likely or very likely to shop in airport travel retail, compared with around 51% of first-time travellers.

Northeast Asia leads value concentration

CTD’s modelled 2026 travel retail value outlook reveals the top five destinations for Chinese travellers. Japan leads with an estimated US$2.09 billion in travel retail value, followed by Hong Kong at US$1.33 billion, Macau at US$1.24 billion, South Korea at US$1.13 billion and France at US$0.56 billion.

CTD explained this means GTR demand is concentrated in a small set of high-intensity corridors – Northeast Asia and Greater Bay Area flows dominate, with selective long-haul destinations contributing meaningful value.

The concentration underlines a familiar pattern, CTD noted: Northeast Asia dominates value, while Hong Kong and Macau dominate volume.

Japan: premiumisation and conversion in focus

Japan emerges as the largest travel retail value destination in CTD’s upper-bound 2026 view. It combines solid projected arrivals of around 4.6 million with high shopping intensity and strong duty-free and airport retail conversion.

For brands, CTD said that translates into a premiumisation opportunity, spanning hero assortments, exclusives, gifting sets and pre-trip ‘reserve & collect’ activation.

Hong Kong and Macao: scale-driven volume engines

Hong Kong is projected to be the largest destination by traveller volume at roughly 39 million arrivals, with Macau close behind at around 30 million. Although spend per visitor is materially lower than in long-haul markets, the scale of cross-border flows drives substantial aggregate retail demand.

These markets function as volume engines, favouring high-frequency strategies, disciplined promotional mechanics and replenishment-friendly categories, CTD noted.

South Korea: a high-conversion corridor

According to CTD, South Korea – with around 6.5 million projected arrivals and US$1.13 billion in travel retail value – stands out as a high-conversion corridor in Asia, particularly for beauty, fragrance and giftable formats where airport execution can shift share.

France: long-haul value, airport-led

France enters the top five despite comparatively modest projected arrivals of around 2.2 million.

CTD observed that long-haul travel typically carries higher overall basket sizes and a clearer airport retail role at departure and return, reinforcing the importance of airport-led retail strategies rather than broad downtown distribution assumptions.

Corridor-first strategies required

For travel retail marketers, the implications are immediate, CTD said. It claimed that a single ‘China strategy’ is unlikely to suffice.

Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Macau demand differentiated pricing, assortment and activation approaches, while operators must balance volume corridors against value corridors, the research company said.

The common denominator is upstream engagement. As CTD indicated, the battle for airport conversion increasingly begins earlier in the journey, at the stages of destination inspiration, itinerary planning and shopping intent formation.

China Trading Desk Founder & CEO Subramania Bhatt commented: “Trade press headlines often focus on ‘trips are back’. The bigger story for brands is that retail behaviour is back – and it’s uneven by corridor. Our 2026 outlook is designed to be demographic-ready, showing where the travel retail value pools sit, which destinations drive volume, and where conversion strategies should differ.

“Our model reconciles to SAFE’s [State Administration of Foreign Exchange] newly released macro benchmark, then translates it into a corridor-by-corridor view that GTR teams can plan against – including travel retail versus non-travel retail shopping splits and conversion signals.”