Double 11 Pre-Insights: 2024 Review and 2025 Trends

Double 11, or Singles’ Day, has evolved into the world’s largest e-commerce festival, shaping both China’s retail landscape and global marketing strategies. The 2024 festival represented a transitional year of stabilisation after periods of disruption, while the 2025 edition is expected to mark a new phase — extending over a longer cycle, simplifying promotional mechanics, and further integrating online and offline retail.

Insights drawn from multiple articles published on WeChat OA, data analyses from Syntun, Endata, and consumer behaviour research on Xiaohongshu all highlight how each edition of Double 11 reflects new shifts in consumption patterns, platform competition and government support.

Double 11 2024: A Transitional Year

The 2024 festival was remarkable less for discount depth of discount than for structure. Platforms began earlier than ever: Douyin on 8 October, Kuaishou on the 10th, and Tmall and JD.com on the 14th. This transformed Double 11 into a month-long retail marathon, offering multiple promotional peaks but also testing consumer patience.

Policy support was another defining feature. For the first time, government subsidies of up to 20% could be stacked with platform offers, creating unusually generous conditions for shoppers and reducing merchant pressure. At the same time, Alibaba, JD.com and Tencent took steps towards interoperability in logistics and payments, signalling a more open and consumer-centric ecosystem.

The results were strong. Gross merchandise value reached RMB 1.44 trillion, a 26.6 per cent year-on-year increase, with live-streaming commerce rising fastest at over 50 per cent growth. Categories such as home appliances, mobile electronics, apparel and beauty remained central to spending, while trends like IP collaborations in cosmetics and health-oriented pet care reflected a shift towards lifestyle and quality-driven consumption.

The Shape of Double 11 in 2025

If 2024 marked recovery and experimentation, 2025 is set to bring structural change：

The first shift will be timing. Kuaishou has announced a 7 October start, JD.com will follow on the 9th, and Tmall on the 15th. This extends the promotional cycle to almost six weeks, the longest in the event’s history. The intention is to capture more consumer attention through staggered bursts, though the danger of fatigue is clear. Lessons from the extended 618 festival, where many shoppers became confused about the best time to buy, underline the need for sharper narratives and distinct campaign phases.

Simplification of mechanics will be the second shift. The once-familiar “full reduction” discounts that demanded complex calculations are being replaced by direct price cuts, simple category coupons and universal vouchers. This reduces consumer friction and lowers return rates, while allowing merchants to focus resources on product quality and brand building. Yet platforms will need to communicate these offers clearly to avoid perceptions of reduced benefits.

The third transformation is the rise of instant retail. Same-day delivery models, once limited to groceries, are expanding rapidly into broader retail categories. Meituan Flash Buy tripled its sales during 618, and other platforms are investing in integrating offline shops into fulfilment networks. This shift signals the dawn of a full-domain retail era, in which success will rely on agility across flagship e-commerce stores, live-streaming sessions, social seeding and local fulfilment partnerships.

Xiaohongshu: Seeding the Journey

Xiaohongshu (RED) has become the starting point for Double 11 shopping journeys. By 2024, search volumes on the platform during the festival peaked at more than twice the annual average, with apparel-related queries up 2.35 times year-round baselines. Importantly, users engaging with search proved nearly five times more likely to convert than non-search users, showing the platform’s role in turning exploration into intent.

Search behaviour is becoming more sophisticated. Broad, generic terms like “autumn coats” dominate the early stages, but growth in long-tail queries such as “black down jacket for commuting” has surged by over 200 per cent year-on-year. This highlights how consumers refine their research before purchase, creating opportunities for brands that can match both discovery and precision intent.

For 2025, Xiaohongshu’s role will be even more crucial given the extended sales cycle. The platform allows brands to “seed” demand in September, nurture interest through October, and convert in November. Those who combine keyword optimisation, scenario-driven content and targeted search advertising will influence decisions long before consumers move to Tmall, JD.com or Douyin to transact.

Challenges for 2025

The ambition of a longer and broader Double 11 brings both opportunities and risks. Extended timelines could risk consumer fatigue unless platforms build sustained excitement through festival-style storytelling, immersive campaigns, and exclusive product launches. Meanwhile, government stimulus will provide only softer support this year: although 300 billion yuan has been earmarked, its phased distribution will limit the dramatic boost witnessed in 2024. Most importantly, the competitive dynamics of the festival are evolving. The discount-driven era is waning, and brands are increasingly evaluated on product quality, consumer trust, and omni-channel engagement. Those relying on low prices alone may face marginalisation, while brands that invest in innovation, experience, and multi-platform strategies will be best positioned to capture enduring consumer loyalty.

Final Thoughts

Double 11 has grown into a complex ecosystem of platforms, policies and consumer expectations. The 2024 festival stabilised growth and introduced new forms of cooperation, while the 2025 edition promises to redefine competition through longer timelines, simpler mechanics and instant retail integration. This isn’t just about discounts — it’s about delivering value.

Get it right, and Double 11 will not just be a sales event; it could become your most significant growth opportunity of the year. Connect with us now!