Chinese Outbound Travel is Back, Just Not to Japan

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By Peden Doma Bhutia

Published January 7, 2026

As Chinese travel normalises, destinations with friction, whether political or practical, are losing out to closer, easier alternatives in Asia.

Japan has fallen sharply in the rankings of preferred destinations for Chinese travellers, sliding from second place to seventh in the latest survey by China Trading Desk released Wednesday.

The drop is striking not just for its scale, but for how quickly it happened. Regional Asia continues to dominate Chinese travel choices, with Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea leading the list.

Total outbound trips in 2025 are on track to surpass the 2019 peak of 155 million, with volumes projected to exceed 200 million by 2028. Japan’s slide reflects how sensitive travel demand can be to political signals.

The downturn followed a diplomatic flare-up after Japan’s prime minister suggested the country could deploy military forces if conflict were to break out in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing reacted swiftly. On November 14, China issued a travel advisory urging its citizens to avoid Japan. Its embassy in Tokyo later repeated the warning, citing reports of “unprovoked insults and beatings.”

That message appears to have cut straight through travel plans.

Tour operators quickly paused group tours. Airlines pulled capacity. Packaged trips, which typically account for large volumes of outbound Chinese travel, were among the first to be hit. The speed of the response suggests this is more than a short-term dip. Japan’s tourism and retail sectors are already feeling the impact, and industry watchers expect the effects could extend into 2026.

More than 1,900 flights from mainland China to Japan were canceled for December, eliminating over 40% of scheduled services for the month. In November 2025, arrivals from mainland China reached 562,600, up just 3% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from October’s 715,700 arrivals, which had posted 23% year-on-year growth.

What Chinese Travelers Bring in to Japan

Before the rift, Chinese travelers were a central pillar of Japan’s inbound recovery. More than 8 million visitors from mainland China arrived in the first 10 months of 2025, a 40% jump from the year before, making China Japan’s strongest inbound market.

Chinese visitors are Japan’s biggest spenders, accounting for roughly a fifth of the country’s $51.9 billion in tourism revenue. Analysts warn that if the downturn drags on, the economic hit could be significant. Subramania Bhatt, CEO of China Trading Desk, previously told Skift that the spending loss for 2025 alone could reach $1 billion to $1.2 billion compared with earlier projections. Japan’s Nomura Research Institute has put potential annual losses even higher, estimating a hit of JPY 2.2 trillion ($14 billion).

Retail data already point to the knock-on effects. Duty-free sales at major department store groups fell sharply in December. J Front Retailing said duty-free sales at Daimaru and Matsuzakaya dropped 17% year-on-year. Takashimaya reported an 11% decline in tax-free sales, curbing overall growth despite steady domestic demand. H2O Retailing said sales to Chinese customers at Kansai-linked outlets fell about 40% because of reduced flights. Other operators also reported double-digit declines, highlighting how closely retail performance tracks inbound tourism.

Chinese Outbound Travel Moves Into a New Phase

While Japan struggles, the broader picture for Chinese outbound travel remains strong. The China Trading Desk survey shows outbound travel has shifted from a post-pandemic rebound to a more settled, routine phase.

But behavior is changing. Travelers are researching earlier and committing later. Short booking windows are now the norm, with 77% of travelers booking within one month of departure. Most plan only one or two trips in the coming year, raising the stakes for destinations and brands competing for attention.

The market is also firmly digital-first. Travel apps and Chinese social platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Douyin play a central role in shaping destination shortlists. Preferences for higher-end accommodation remain stable, with about 68% favoring four-star hotels or above, and more than half planning to spend at least RMB 25,000 ($3,579) per trip. At the same time, first-time outbound travelers now make up a smaller share of the market, slipping to 36% from 39% in the previous quarter, though they continue to need extra reassurance.

Shopping remains a major part of the trip, but decisions are not always locked in. Around 64% plan to shop while traveling, yet more than a quarter are still undecided about where and what to buy. Price comparison online is now almost universal.

The survey also points to shifting payment habits. About 42% of travellers plan to use digital wallets such as Alipay or WeChat Pay overseas, reinforcing the need for smooth, mobile-first payment options.

Who Is Traveling, and Why It Matters

China Trading Desk groups Chinese outbound travelers into four broad personas.

• There is the mobile-first, video-led Gen Z explorer.

• The family-oriented frequent traveler focused on value and structure.

• The luxury-seeking high-net-worth individual looking for convenience and trusted brands; and

• The cautious first-time traveler who prioritizes clarity and support.

  
  

These distinctions matter because each group responds to different cues. A last-minute deal can sway a younger, spontaneous traveler, while detailed “what to expect” guidance and Chinese-language support are more likely to reassure first-timers.