China Trading Desk raises 2026 China outbound travel spend forecast

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By TRBUSINESS EDITOR

Published on May 14, 2026

China Marketing AI, by China Trading Desk, has released its updated China Outbound Travel Market Outlook 2026, raising its high-case in-destination traveller spend estimate to US$295.9 billion after incorporating Q1 actuals.

The earlier version of the outlook, released in March, pointed to a high-case 2026 travel-spend opportunity of around US$280 billion.

With Q1 actual spending now included, the updated forecast shows stronger upside, with a base planning view of 178 million Chinese outbound trips and US$276.1 billion in in-destination traveller spend – and a high case of 187.3 million trips and US$295.9 billion.

The forecast excludes international airfare and focuses on estimated in-destination traveller spend.

For travel retail and destination commerce, the update points to a clear shift: arrivals are no longer enough. In 2026, the winners are likely to be destinations and retail corridors that combine access, shopping relevance, and influence before the traveller leaves China.

China Trading Desk highlights opportunities “Q1 actuals show that the China outbound opportunity is stronger than our earlier March high-case view suggested,” noted China Trading Desk Founder & CEO Subramania Bhatt.

“The question is no longer whether demand is returning. It is who captures the spend. In 2026, the strongest opportunities will be in markets that are easy to reach, relevant for shopping, and visible to Chinese travellers before the trip is booked.”

A larger outbound market will not lift every destination or retail channel equally, the research suggests. Short-haul markets continue to benefit from access, convenience, repeat travel, and flexible trip planning.

Long-haul and premium corridors may see fewer trips, but higher spend per journey, driven by longer stays and categories such as luxury retail, hospitality, dining, wellness, and attractions.

For travel retail operators, the report identifies three priorities: understanding where Chinese outbound demand is recovering fastest, identifying markets with the highest spend potential, and influencing purchase decisions before departure.

It recommends evaluating opportunities based on spend intensity, traveller profile, accessibility, category relevance and the ability to engage travellers during trip planning.

The forecast is based on observed Q1 activity, including 185 million cross-border movements reported by China’s National Immigration Administration, with mainland resident crossings used as the basis for outbound trip estimates. Q1 travel spend is anchored to US$64.6 billion using SAFE Balance of Payments travel debit data.

The forecast separates trip seasonality from spend seasonality, recognising that Chinese New Year, May Day, summer holidays, Golden Week, route capacity, destination mix, and traveller confidence affect the rest of the year differently.

A key theme of the report is the importance of pre-trip influence. Chinese travellers are increasingly making shopping and itinerary decisions before departure through platforms such as Xiaohongshu, Douyin, WeChat, online travel agencies and creator content.

“Travel retail cannot afford to wait until the traveller arrives,” added Bhatt. “By then, many category preferences, brand choices, and itinerary decisions have already been shaped. The advantage goes to partners that engage earlier.”

The report also highlights risks that could affect 2026 travel retail performance, including air capacity constraints, higher airfares, geopolitical disruption affecting flight routes, currency pressures, consumer confidence and visa accessibility.

The base planning view incorporates current travel risks, while the high case assumes stronger Q2-Q4 momentum, better capacity, lower disruption, and higher spend capture.

“The goal is not to imply precision where open data is limited,” concluded Bhatt. “The goal is to provide a transparent, usable forecast that helps travel retail and destination commerce teams decide where to focus, how to size the opportunity, and how to plan for different demand scenarios.”