China Trading Desk forecasts US$23bn global travel retail opportunity

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By Jill Sayles

Published February 23, 2026

The consultancy projects a US$280bn China outbound travel rebound in 2026, with retail-ready travellers and corridor concentration set to drive a US$23bn airport and duty free spend opportunity.

China Trading Desk (CTD) has forecast a US$280bn rebound in China outbound travel spend for 2026, with an estimated US$23bn opportunity for global travel retail (GTR).

The Singapore-based consultancy said Chinese travellers generated US$254bn in outbound spend in 2025 across around 167.5 million trips, based on official data and its own modelling.

For 2026, CTD projects 175 million outbound trips and US$280bn in total spend, including US$23bn in airport and duty free shopping and a further US$56bn in non-travel retail shopping.

According to CTD’s Q4 outbound travel survey, 64.45% of respondents said they were likely or very likely to shop in airport travel retail, with frequent travellers significantly more “retail-ready” than first-time travellers.

Northeast Asia leads value

CTD’s 2026 estimates place Japan at the top of the travel retail value ranking, with projected spend of US$2.09bn, followed by Hong Kong (US$1.33bn), Macao (US$1.24bn), South Korea (US$1.13bn) and France (US$0.56bn).

The consultancy said Northeast Asia dominates value, while Hong Kong and Macao lead on sheer traveller volume, making them high-frequency retail corridors despite lower spend per visitor than long-haul markets.

Japan was identified as the leading market for premiumisation and conversion, combining solid arrival numbers with high shopping intensity and strong duty free uptake. South Korea was described as a key “high-conversion corridor”, particularly for beauty, fragrance and giftable formats.

France enters the top five on the back of higher long-haul basket values and a strong role for airport retail at departure and return.

China Trading Desk Founder & CEO, Subramania Bhatt said: “Trade press headlines often focus on ‘trips are back.’ The bigger story for brands is that retail behaviour is back, and it’s uneven by corridor. Our 2026 outlook is designed to be demographic-ready, showing where the travel retail value pools sit, which destinations drive volume, and where conversion strategies should differ.

“Our model reconciles to SAFE’s newly released macro benchmark, then translates it into a corridor-by-corridor view that GTR teams can plan against, including travel retail vs non-travel retail shopping splits and conversion signals.”

CTD advised brands and airport retailers to adopt a corridor-first strategy rather than a single China approach, differentiating between high-volume markets such as Hong Kong and Macao and higher-value corridors including Japan, South Korea and selective long-haul destinations.

The findings are based on official Balance of Payments data from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange and CTD’s outbound travel arrivals and sentiment modelling.