Special Report – They’re not changing, they’ve already changed

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By João Paulo Meneses

Published October 18, 2025

In 2023, still in the aftermath of the pandemic, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) announced in Macau that China would “overtake the United States as the world’s largest tourism economy” by 2026.

The forecast surprised many, given the short timeframe, but it has not only been reaffirmed since – it has even been brought forward. WTTC’s latest projections, including its Economic Impact Research published this year, reinforce the view that China’s travel and tourism sector is set to reach record levels.

According to WTTC, the sector is recovering impressively after the pandemic and is expected to continue expanding rapidly in the coming years.

The global tourism market remains marked by uncertainty, yet one factor is clear: the growing desire of Chinese tourists to holiday abroad.

One of the most recent reports from Dragon Trail International, a firm specialising in the Chinese market, underscores this point. As of mid-March 2025, 75 per cent of survey respondents were either planning an outbound trip this year or had already made one. “This is the highest percentage since we began asking Chinese travelers about their outbound travel plans in December 2022,” the Chinese Traveler Sentiment Report notes.

Other findings from the same source are equally striking: 93 per cent of respondents who had already travelled abroad this year still intended to travel more. The report also highlights that significantly more people are planning outbound trips for the rest of 2025 compared with the previous year.

Since spring 2024, the proportion of respondents saying they definitely would not travel abroad has fallen from 10 per cent to just 5 per cent, “showing improving intention of Chinese consumers to explore beyond mainland China.”

“China’s outbound tourism is back in full swing, but the real shift is in why people are traveling and how they’re deciding where to go, what to book, and what to buy,” wrote analyst Peden Doma Bhutia of the China Trading Desk.

Structural change or temporary shift?

That raises an important question: are the new behaviours of Chinese tourists, explored throughout this special report, structural changes or merely temporary shifts shaped by the current climate?

The question is valid because, according to many experts, it was the Covid-19 pandemic that altered the profile and habits of Chinese travellers. In other words, the industry may still be experiencing the pandemic’s aftershocks, and some previous patterns could eventually re-emerge.

What experts broadly agree on, however, is that a “profound transformation” has already taken place. For instance, the earlier model of mass travel combined with luxury shopping has given way to a more independent, experience-driven approach that now prioritises values such as safety, authenticity and cultural immersion.

Chinese tourists appear to have moved away from the once-common – even stereotypical – preference for large organised groups, showing a growing inclination to travel independently or with family. These are just two or three examples of the many aspects that have changed.

Pandemic as catalyst, not creator

It will take several years to fully assess the long-term impact of these shifts. Nonetheless, there is broad consensus among experts that “the pandemic acted as a catalyst, not a creator, of domestic tourism and lifestyle trends.”

In their view, while the pandemic abruptly halted international travel, much of the available evidence points to pre-existing domestic trends. One notable example is the VAT rate reduction in 2019, which had already “accelerated the trend of domestic shopping.”

Similarly, the growing pursuit of nature and outdoor activities suggests these preferences were not entirely new but were greatly amplified during the period of restricted international travel.

Learning from the “new normal”

It is no exaggeration to say that no one was fully prepared for the rapid and, in many cases, unexpected shifts in the profile of Chinese tourists.

One of the immediate consequences is that both public bodies, such as the MGTO, and private operators have had to adapt, re-skilling staff and management to engage more effectively with this increasingly digital-savvy market.

In other words, the pandemic not only reshaped Chinese tourist behaviour but also eroded much of the institutional knowledge, expertise and operational capacity of international tourism organisations to engage effectively with this vital segment.

The greatest challenge now lies in bridging this critical strategic gap – a task that demands deeper market research and sharper adjustments to external marketing.