China’s tourists turn from Japan to South-east Asia, but will momentum last?

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By Evan See

Published March 20, 2026

[SINGAPORE] Ren Zihan, a resident of the northern Chinese city of Dalian, feels as if all her friends are vacationing in South-east Asia lately.

Pictures of durians and hawker food have filled her social media feed, the 32-year-old tells The Business Times. “It seems as if everyone is in Malaysia and Singapore at the moment.”

Beyond the usual phenomenon of travellers seeking warmer destinations during the winter months, a new factor is pushing Chinese tourists south.

South-east Asia has been a popular destination for some time, but Chinese travellers are now flocking to the region in greater numbers. This follows a diplomatic spat last November that prompted them to abandon Japan – previously among their top destinations.

“There’s a dramatic shift under way,” notes Mayur Patel, commercial and industry affairs leader for the Asia-Pacific at aviation analytics firm OAG.

“Aircraft freed from suspended Japan routes are being redeployed to South-east Asian leisure destinations, where Chinese demand is holding up.”

Diplomatic troubles

The turning point was a statement made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Nov 7.

When asked in parliament about a hypothetical attack by Beijing on Taiwan, she responded that such an exercise of force would constitute “a situation threatening Japan’s survival” – a legal term that allows the nation to deploy its self-defence forces.

This triggered a back-and-forth between Japanese and Chinese diplomats, before the rift began to take an economic turn.

Later that month, China advised its citizens to avoid Japan. By January, all flights along 49 routes between the two countries had been cancelled and refunded by major Chinese airlines.

After a sharp post-pandemic recovery, China’s outbound travel growth has eased. Chinese tourists logged 167.5 million trips in 2025, indicates marketing agency China Trading Desk – which projects this level to still rise this year, by 4.5 per cent to 175 million.

Before the incident, tourism to Japan specifically had shown no signs of slowing.

“Prior to November 2025, the Japanese market was thriving,” says Alan Lim, director at consultancy Alton Aviation. Between January and October, Chinese visits to Japan had surged 40.7 per cent from the year-ago period.

Japan was not only a major destination for Chinese tourists – these travellers also made up a significant share of the arrivals in the country. From the start of 2025 to October, 8.2 million visitors – nearly one-quarter of Japan’s total arrivals – were from mainland China, based on OAG data.

All that has changed. In January and February 2026, after the flight cancellations, one-way seat capacity from China to Japan fell by between 47 and 50 per cent compared with the year-ago period.

Meanwhile, flights from China to South-east Asia experienced a significant increase in seat capacity – in the first two months of 2026, it rose about 15 to 20 per cent year on year, indicates Alton Aviation data.

Journeys to the south

In the wake of Beijing’s travel advisories, South Korea, Europe and Australia have also overtaken Japan as preferred destinations among the Chinese, based on survey data from China Trading Desk.

But South-east Asia’s combination of value, variety and accessibility makes the region particularly attractive to them, notes Edmund Ong, senior regional director for South-east Asia at online travel agency Trip.com.

Shorter flight times mean easier connectivity to the region, he adds. There is also a seasonal boost, as South-east Asia’s warm climate is especially appealing during the colder Spring Festival period in China.

Eric Zhu, Asia aviation and defence analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, agrees. “We do expect Chinese travellers to be budget-conscious this year, which favours the lower-cost, short-haul options found within South-east Asia.”

Within the region, some countries have received a stronger boost than others. In February 2026, the greatest year-on-year increases for flight bookings from China were to Vietnam (41 per cent) and Malaysia (38 per cent), according to OAG.

Singapore’s and Malaysia’s popularity could also grow further, says China Trading Desk, whose survey found that the two countries have overtaken even South Korea in the list of destinations most respondents plan to visit.

For most of 2025, Thailand appeared to have lost its place as China’s most preferred holiday destination in South-east Asia, after the kidnapping of a Chinese actor in January sparked fears.

In its place, Vietnam emerged as a winner, backed by the dong weakening against the renminbi.

China Trading Desk chief executive officer Subramania Bhatt, however, expects Thailand to reclaim its crown this year, with the closure of routes to Japan being a key catalyst.

Ma Shangyin, a content creator known as the “Thailand Detective” among his Mandarin-speaking followers on Xiaohongshu, has been based in the kingdom for three years. He tells BT that Chinese tourists have started returning to the country.

“Now, Chinese tourists are choosing Thailand as they cannot go to Japan,” he says.

Thailand has stepped up its efforts to welcome Chinese tourists back. In February, it launched the year-long “zhong tai yi jia qin” – or “China and Thailand are one family” – campaign, with travel packages offered in partnership with Chinese travel agencies and influencer marketing campaigns.

Data compiled in a Bank of America report suggests that these endeavours are paying off. Total Chinese arrivals to Thailand are on track to reach 1.6 million in the first three months of this year, a 19.6 increase from the same period in 2025.

But demand for regional travel has also diversified, with greater flight connectivity between South-east Asian destinations allowing tourists to hop between cities or countries.

Chinese tourists in the region have increasingly been drawn to what Trip.com calls “second-tier destinations”, the likes of which include Kota Kinabalu in Malaysia and Phu Quoc island in Vietnam.

“They are taking longer trips and spreading their travel across multiple destinations, such as visiting Singapore and Malaysia in a single trip,” says Ong.

Vietnam is a key beneficiary, Patel of OAG observes. The country now boasts 51 route connections – including from secondary cities such as Danang and Phu Quoc – to other South-east Asian destinations, up from 45 in 2019.

The region’s laggards

Indonesia and the Philippines, however, have remained laggards in attracting visitors from China.

In January, Chinese visits to the Philippines rose just 4.9 per cent on the year. The country has struggled to get tourists back post-pandemic – and “the biggest factor is the Chinese market”, says Maybank Philippines analyst Ronalyn Lalimo.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese tourists made up about 21 per cent of the nation’s visitors; now, they account for less than 5 per cent, she notes.

A senior hospitality industry executive tells BT that a key choke point is the Philippines’ overcrowded main airport, the Ninoy Aquino International Airport. In 2025, it handled more than 15 million passengers beyond its stated capacity.

Tourism growth is also being held back by poor inter-island connectivity and a lack of price-point variety for hospitality options, the executive adds.

This has prompted Manila to take steps to boost arrivals. From January this year, Chinese nationals no longer need a visa for visits under 14 days.

But the runway for the country’s tourism sector remains long, says OCBC senior Asean economist Lavanya Venkateswaran in a research note.

This is in comparison with its regional peers, which already have well-established tourism infrastructure, including tour arrangements, accommodation and food options.

Indonesia does not seem to be benefiting from the tourism diverted away from Japan, either. In fact, its Chinese arrivals declined 3.5 per cent year on year in January 2026, though they still formed a sizeable 10.4 per cent of the country’s total visitors.

Indonesia remains one of just two Asean-6 markets – the other is Vietnam – that require Chinese tourists to apply for visas on arrival, which cost 500,000 rupiah (S$37.70).

Tapping growth

For Japan, the economic consequences are considerable. Tourism accounted for 7.5 per cent of Japan’s gross domestic product in 2024, or about 44.6 trillion yen (S$358.2 billion), according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).

With China making up about 23 per cent of all tourists to Japan in 2025, prior to November, a pullback from this major source will hurt overall GDP substantially.

China Trading Desk’s Bhatt predicts that Japan will lose between US$9 billion and US$10.5 billion in revenue this year, compared with a scenario in which the diplomatic spat never happened.

As for South-east Asia, WTTC estimates that the tourism sector contributed US$374 billion to the region’s combined GDP in 2024, or around 9.4 per cent.

Diverted Chinese demand could amplify this further. Bhatt believes that overall Chinese tourist spending may grow by 10.2 per cent in 2026 to US$280 billion, with about US$35 billion of this spent within South-east Asia.

The region’s hospitality and tourism sector has been courting Chinese travellers for a while. On Trip.com – which originated as a travel agency for Chinese tourists – hotels can be filtered by “Chinese-friendly” offerings such as Mandarin-speaking service staff.

Global hotel chain Hilton has integrated Chinese platforms into its booking processes. WeChat is offered as a payment option, and rooms are listed on Alibaba’s travel platform, Fliggy.

“Mandarin-speaking team members in key gateway destinations also help to make stays more familiar and comfortable,” says Sebastien Kaeuffer, vice-president for South-east Asia at Hilton.

Politics or policy?

But how long will these tensions continue to keep Chinese tourists flying south?

Historical precedent could be revealing, says Xiaowei Rose Luo, professor of entrepreneurship and family enterprise at Insead, a business school.

She notes this is not the first time Chinese visitors have shunned Japan following a diplomatic spat.

In September 2012, tensions arose when the Japanese government sought to purchase three territories in the disputed Senkaku Islands from a private owner. It did not help that this coincided with the anniversary of a key military operation preceding the 1931 Japanese invasion of Manchuria.

This escalated into a series of demonstrations across mainland China. Visits by Chinese tourists to Japan declined rapidly, recovering to pre-dispute levels only in 2014.

Dr Luo expects a similar dynamic in the current dispute, with Chinese tourism to Japan possibly stagnating for some time before recovering.

She adds that Beijing’s current playbook seems to be holding off on restoring flights until Takaichi reverses her stance on Taiwan.

“The impact will last for some time. The Japanese government will typically avoid making escalating comments, but rarely will reverse its message.”

But unlike 14 years ago, it remains unclear whether the average Chinese tourist has willingly forgone their Japanese holiday – or if they have simply been unable to book flights.

Dr Luo believes they have, and may continue to do so regardless of air route availability. “Chinese consumer attitudes in general towards Japan are likely to remain negative due to the historical tension.”

This may not be the case for everyone, however. Ren, who has visited Japan before, says: “Actually, I think ordinary Chinese people don’t really care about politics.”

Rather, practical issues – including limited air connectivity and visa availability – are what have put mainlanders off visiting popular Japanese destinations over the last few months, she adds.

Similarly, Shenzhen resident Hu Rong is still considering a trip to Japan later this year, following her trip to Malaysia over the Spring Festival. To her knowledge, none of her friends or family have cancelled trips to Japan for political reasons.

In a UBS survey of Chinese travellers, 66 per cent of respondents still hope to travel to Japan eventually, despite ongoing tensions.

In the long term, Bloomberg’s Zhu doesn’t see Japan losing its fundamental appeal as a travel destination. “A return to previous growth levels is likely dependent on a more stable diplomatic environment,” he says.

Does this mean that China’s enthusiasm for South-east Asia may be short-lived? Travel winds in the region’s sails can change easily, as shown by the abrupt turn away from Thailand last year.

Regardless, Bhatt thinks travel momentum into South-east Asia is here to stay. “Visa friction is low and the destinations offer strong value and convenience,” he notes.

“Repeat visitors (to Japan) are rotating into new destinations for novelty. We see growing interest in South-east Asia.”