2025 618 Forecast: How Chinese Consumers Are Redefining Mid-Year Shopping

As June nears, the battle for China’s mid-year e-commerce crown is already heating up. Platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin have started early campaigns, signalling a more intense and diversified 618 season in 2025. From early seeding strategies to revamped promotion mechanics, this year’s mid-year campaign is unfolding faster and more competitively than ever.

Drawing on findings from Nielsen’s 2024 consumer study and other industry sources, this article recaps the defining signals from 2024's mid-year sales and dives deep into what we can expect from this year’s 618.

Recap: Key Trends from 2024

In 2024 consumer research, 82% of shoppers intended to participate in 618, slightly below the 89% seen during the previous Double 11. Many respondents viewed 618 more as a “stocking-up opportunity” than a moment for big-ticket spending. Over 60% planned to spend over ¥1,000, but nearly half expected to spend less than they did in the previous festival.

While price sensitivity dominated consumer sentiment, there were clear pockets of enthusiasm for novelty and value. Popular categories included home care, personal hygiene, and electronics. Significantly, content-driven platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin gained ground as top-of-funnel inspiration sources, with 2.5 “grass-planting” platforms used on average before consumers made a purchase decision.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect from 618 in 2025

The Rise of the Early-Bird Shopper

Chinese consumers in 2025 are beginning their shopping journeys well ahead of June. Many begin browsing, comparing, and curating wish lists as early as April. Platforms have responded accordingly—Alibaba’s Alimama, for instance, released its 618 marketing playbook a full 10 days earlier than last year.

This anticipatory shopping reflects a more intentional, value-driven mindset. Today’s consumer carefully plans purchases, follows KOLs and influencers, and builds trust with brands long before discounts surface. Impulse buying still exists, but it is increasingly structured around “planned spontaneity”, where promotions must feel personalised and worthwhile.

Discovery Over Discounts

Novelty is emerging as a stronger purchase driver than price. Consumers on platforms like Tmall and Taobao are gravitating towards products that are new, exclusive, and experience-oriented rather than merely discounted.

Tmall has adapted by tweaking its recommendation algorithms to prioritise fresh listings and incentivise merchants who offer unique, high-quality experiences. The emotional satisfaction of discovering something new is replacing the old thrill of a deep discount. Platforms are now investing in “first-look” livestreams, limited-time launches, and content-based shopping journeys to deliver a sense of exploration and exclusivity.

Experience Is the New Discount

Consumers are no longer satisfied with markdowns alone—they seek transparency, security, and enjoyment in the buying process. JD.com has centred its 618 strategy on reassurance, offering features such as 30-day price guarantees and mandatory shipping insurance.

Tools like red envelopes have transformed from mere novelties into behavioural rituals. Digital scratch cards and mini rewards have become part of daily engagement, helping to integrate shopping into everyday digital habits.

Livestreaming as Social Currency

Douyin is redefining livestreaming, turning it into a hybrid of entertainment, social validation, and community interaction. Influencers now serve as trusted shopping advisors, while live chat features offer consumers immediate feedback and engagement.

This trend is especially prominent in categories such as beauty, where Douyin is forecasting over 40% growth in conversion rates. Livestreaming is no longer about pushing products—it’s about creating stories, sharing lifestyles, and fostering belonging.

Emotional Commerce and the Growth of Digital Rituals

In 2025, the 618 Festival is no longer a contest over who offers the lowest prices—it’s about who understands the emotional cadence of the consumer journey. From JD.com’s daily red envelope drops to Douyin’s gamified shopping tasks and Tmall’s wish-granting mechanics, platforms are embedding rituals into the user experience.

These digital rituals echo offline behaviours: the anticipation of a scratch card, the excitement of leafing through a catalogue with friends. Now, however, they are woven into the digital scroll, the algorithmic feed, and the livestream narrative.

Conclusion: The Empowered, Expectant Shopper

The 2025 618 Festival is not simply a sales event—it’s a behavioural mirror. Platforms aren’t just marketing products; they’re responding to deep psychological shifts in how Chinese consumers perceive trust, risk, and joy in shopping.

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