50% of Chinese tourists 'turn their backs' on Japan, Vietnam benefits.

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By ZNews

Published on January 11, 2026

South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand are projected to be the three most popular destinations for Chinese tourists in 2026. Meanwhile, the number of these tourists to Japan is at risk of declining by nearly 50%.

Chinese tourists wearing kimonos visit Sensoji Temple in Asakusa Ward, Tokyo, Japan, in November 2025. Photo: The Japan Times .

China's outbound tourism market is projected to continue growing in 2026, driven by an increasing number of countries adopting visa-free policies for Chinese citizens and the strengthening of the yuan.

However, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan could plummet by almost half amid the political dispute between the two countries , according to experts and tourism industry representatives.

South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand "rise to the top".

According to SCMP , China Trading Desk, a travel marketing and technology company, predicts that mainland Chinese tourists will make approximately 165-175 million cross-border trips in 2026, up from last year's estimated 155 million.

This figure includes trips to Hong Kong as well as more distant destinations such as Europe and Africa.

South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand are projected to be the three most popular destinations for Chinese tourists this year, in that order. According to the China Trading Desk, these countries "benefit" from convenient transportation links with China and possess numerous attractive tourist attractions.

In addition, many other countries are also expected to welcome more Chinese tourists after easing their visa policies . Dozens of countries have already allowed holders of Chinese passports to stay for short periods without a visa.

Russia has allowed Chinese tourists to enter without a visa from December 2025. Türkiye implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens this month, while Cambodia plans to waive visas for Chinese visitors from June to October.

According to James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania (Australia), the expansion of visa-free policies is one of the main drivers of China's outbound tourism growth.

He suggested that Chinese travel companies are also "becoming bolder" in exploring new destinations.

In addition, the yuan's more than 1% appreciation against the USD over the past month could further boost the Chinese tourism market by making USD-denominated countries more affordable.

However, according to Song Seng Wun, an economic advisor at the fintech company SDAX (Singapore), the strengthening yuan plays only a "relative" role in boosting demand for overseas travel. The reason is that many other Asian currencies have also appreciated against the USD, reducing the yuan's advantage.

Expanding international air connections are also a factor encouraging Chinese people to travel abroad, according to Sienna Parulis-Cook, Director of Marketing and Communications at Dragon Trail International.

She cited the opening of new routes in recent months, such as Shanghai-Buenos Aires and Beijing-Muscat.

Trend of avoiding Japan

Contrary to the general trend, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan is projected to decline sharply in 2026. A recent survey by the China Trading Desk suggests that Japan may only receive around 4.8-5.8 million Chinese tourists this year, a significant decrease from the 9.3 million projected for 2025.

Relations between China and Japan have become so strained that China has warned its citizens to limit travel to Japan due to safety concerns.

According to the China Trading Desk, the monthly number of Chinese visitors to Japan decreased to 560,000 in November 2025, and then further decreased to 530,000 in December. Prior to that, the Japan National Tourism Organization recorded 715,700 visitors from mainland China in October.

Subramania Bhatt, CEO of China Trading Desk, believes that a "prolonged trend of avoiding Japan" is contributing to the decline in Chinese tourists, especially independent travelers.

All Nippon Airways said that the number of business travelers from Japan to China is expected to remain largely unchanged from November 2025.

However, the airline is seeking to increase its operations by marketing flights serving the Chinese community living and working in Japan who wish to return home.

Meanwhile, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), China's tourism industry, including both domestic and inbound tourism , is projected to continue its strong growth in the coming years.

This market is expected to grow at an average rate of 7% per year over the next decade, contributing approximately $3.8 trillion to China's GDP by 2035. WTTC also forecasts that by 2031, China will become the world's largest travel and tourism market, surpassing the United States.