2025 Golden Week Insight & Forecast: A Convergence of Travel, Consumption, and Confidence
- Alice
- Sep 3
- 4 min read
Updated: Sep 4
As China prepares for the 2025 “Super Golden Week” — an eight-day holiday uniting the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival — consumer confidence, travel demand, and retail innovation are set for a new peak. This forecast draws on insights from NielsenIQ and the travel industry’s official WeChat accounts, offering a forward look at how Chinese consumers will travel and spend this season.
Looking Back at 2024 Golden Week
In 2024, Golden Week marked a turning point for outbound tourism. Border crossings hit 7.589 million, up 33.2% year-on-year, while international flights surged 38.2%, returning to 80% of 2019 levels. Visa-free access to destinations such as Singapore and Thailand drove bookings, with hotel reservations reaching 120% of 2019 and outbound tours up over 50%. Southeast Asia and East Asia led demand, but Georgia broke into the top five as a surprise newcomer.
2025: The “Super Golden Week” Ahead
The 2025 National Day holiday (1–8 October) coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival, creating an eight-day "super holiday." This rare alignment enhances both the cultural and commercial significance of the season. Families will celebrate reunion under the full moon while cities across China host parades, fireworks, and public festivities, adding layers of symbolism to an already high-demand travel period.
Golden Week, alongside the Lunar New Year holiday, is one of the two annual “peaks of life” in China—moments when mobility, consumption, and sentiment reach their highest levels. With under a month to go, outbound travel agencies report bookings in full swing. Three major shifts:
Rising Travel Confidence: Greater willingness to book overseas trips, even long-haul.
Visa-Free Expansion: Broader choice of convenient destinations.
Slow Living Preferences: Demand for in-depth and relaxed itineraries.
Conversely, three decreases are also apparent:
Shorter Decision Cycles: Travellers book closer to departure.
Fewer Leave Days: Fewer are willing to extend beyond the statutory break.
Lower Budget Thresholds: Consumers remain cautious despite enthusiasm.
Who Is Travelling?
Research findings categorise outbound tourists into three core groups:
Generation Z (20–35 years, 32%). Over half (58%) are first-time outbound travellers. Their preferences are shaped by social media “currency”: viral towns, alpine meadows, and adventurous activities like paragliding dominate.
Family-friendly, visa-free destinations within short flight distances rank highest, such as Sabah, Laos, and the UAE. Family packages emphasising kids’ clubs and short transfers are booming.
Silver Autumn Travellers (50–65 years, 22%). Seeking autumn foliage in Europe, North America, and Japan, their average trip spans 12 days. Comfort is paramount, from premium hotels to expert-led tours of cultural landmarks.
Timing the Peaks
The fusion of Mid-Autumn within Golden Week has produced a distinctive three-phase pattern:
First Wave (28 Sept–1 Oct): Early travellers who combine sightseeing with a later return home for reunion.
Second Wave (3–5 Oct): Families on mid-length trips, blending tourism with festival activities such as lantern events.
Third Wave (Post-8 Oct): Retirees and flexible workers enjoy off-peak travel with extended itineraries, such as Inner Mongolia’s autumn tours or special long-haul rail products.
This segmentation ensures high demand across the entire holiday period rather than a single concentrated spike.
Visa-Free Destinations Reshaping Choices
Visa facilitation remains the most powerful catalyst. In 2025, China’s outbound travellers can access an even broader range of visa-free or e-visa destinations. Beyond Southeast Asia, the spotlight is shifting to “black horse” markets such as Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan), the Caucasus, and the Balkans. South Africa is particularly promising following the rollout of a new e-visa channel. High-end safaris and cultural immersion packages are expected to grow by 30% year-on-year.
Pricing, Product Innovation, and Supply Chains
Travel agencies began securing resources six months in advance. From direct flights on China Southern to Queenstown hotels in New Zealand and tickets for Iceland’s Blue Lagoon, agencies are prioritising “guaranteed availability.” This pre-booking strategy helps stabilise prices, keeping overall outbound costs flat or even lower compared with 2024.
Key trends include:
Accommodation: Extended stays (2–4 nights per city) to support immersive travel.
Transport: Premium carriers and high punctuality rates, with more high-speed rail and scenic trains.
Experiences: High-value add-ons such as guided world heritage access, cliffside cafes, and Michelin recommendations.
Japan stands out: favourable exchange rates mean packages are up to 15% cheaper, attracting both families and solo travellers.
Consumption Trends: Double Festival Dynamics
Beyond travel, Golden Week is equally vital for domestic consumption. Consumer confidence dipped in early 2025, yet festivals act as emotional catalysts. In 2024, Mid-Autumn and Golden Week triggered an 8.8% rebound in sentiment and a 5.4% increase in FMCG sales.
For 2025, three structural shifts define the landscape:
E-Commerce Transformation: Content commerce continues to outpace traditional platforms, now accounting for 20.1% of FMCG sales.
Tier-3 Cities Rising: Lower-tier markets represent 35% of seasonal sales, especially via instant retail channels.
Health & Gift Segmentation: Gift boxes bifurcate: premium sets above RMB 300 grow, while affordable RMB 50–200 options capture mass demand. Health-focused assortments, including functional teas and supplements, expand rapidly.
Additionally, spontaneous gifting is reshaping retail. Over 70% of consumers now rely on instant retail for festival gifts, favouring same-day delivery of wine, mooncakes, and health products. Pet-related gifts and functional snacks (low-sugar bread, instant porridge) are also trending.
Outlook: A Festival of Resilience
The 2025 “Super Golden Week” blends celebration with opportunity — a time when outbound travel surges, families reunite, and consumer confidence sparks new spending. It’s a moment that reveals China’s economic resilience: travellers go further, lifestyles diversify, and gifting becomes more meaningful.
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